The Currency of Politics: The Political Theory of Money from Aristotle to Keynes

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The Currency of Politics: The Political Theory of Money from Aristotle to Keynes

The Currency of Politics: The Political Theory of Money from Aristotle to Keynes

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Currency Politics: The Eurozone Crisis and the World's Financial Future,” the Alice Gorlin Memorial Lecture, Oakland University, April 8, 2015. [If your Flash plugins are not up to date, there is a lower res. version available here.] The field of currency policy is increasingly important as the global economy becomes ever more integrated; however, it is poorly understood by the general public and often forgotten until a crisis arises. The influence of contingent political factors on the ability of governments to change their monetary policy is shown to be profound. Frieden makes his research accessible to a broader audience through Currency Politics; it is a challenging read in parts, but worth the effort to understand how national politics shape currency policy and the possible future of international currency regimes. A decade and a half later, they have a podcast. It’s called Political Currency, and it follows the stunningly successful format of The Rest Is Politics, where Blairite spin doctor Alastair Campbell and erstwhile Tory heavyweight Rory Stewart “disagree agreeably” about politics to millions of eager listeners. To distinguish themselves, Osborne and Balls are focusing specifically on economics (“currency” – get it?). Apparently they “have the knowledge and experience to explain how good politics follows the economics”. A look at how their careers ended – with Balls losing his seat in 2015 and Osborne’s ascendance cut short by the 2016 EU referendum – suggests this is up for debate.

Este artículo examina los efectos de los impactos electorales extranjeros en los mercados de divisas. Presenta una teoría de la señalización y la incertidumbre para explicar por qué las elecciones en países con vínculos económicos estrechos deberían afectar las tasas de cambio. Metodológicamente, este artículo se centra en varios estudios de caso, con las elecciones de 2016 en Estados Unidos como caso central: se utiliza un marco de análisis de eventos para medir el impacto de las elecciones en el peso mexicano mediante la explotación de la exogeneidad plausible de los tuits de Donald Trump. También se miden los cambios en el peso utilizando la probabilidad prevista de que Trump gane las elecciones para demostrar que el peso es más débil cuando dicho candidato tiene la mayor probabilidad de ganar las elecciones. Además, se incluye una serie de análisis y comprobaciones de solidez de otros casos recientes notables en los que la incertidumbre electoral afectó las monedas de otros países, incluida la elección brasileña de 2018. Los resultados cuantifican el efecto de las elecciones extranjeras sobre los tipos de cambio, con base en la bibliografía existente que se centra en cómo las elecciones nacionales dan forma a los mercados de divisas. A modo de conclusión, se incluye un debate de la validez externa del fenómeno demostrado por los casos en el artículo, trazando futuras investigaciones sobre el tema y delineando formas de extender los hallazgos. A very good book. . . . Eich takes us on a fascinating journey."—Paul Sagar, Perspectives on Politics Currency Politics is an ambitious book on an important topic. Frieden is one of the best political economists and one of the best scholars writing on this subject." —Sebastian Edwards, University of California, Los Angeles and author of Toxic Aid

The restricted dataset contains 80 tweets regarding Mexico. I assume (and confirm via review and hand-coding) that all remaining tweets are negative. I run several different event analyses, including on the time period after which he has announced his run but before the campaign as the Republican candidate (June 16, 2015 to May 3, 2016), the time period in which Trump is the presumed and then official candidate (May 3, 2016 to November 8, 2016), the time between election day and inauguration day (November 8, 2016 to January 20, 2016) and inauguration day to September 2017. The full list of dates and the text of the tweets is in the online appendix. Notably, if several tweets are issued in the same day, I treat them as a single event, and use the average sentiment score for all tweets on that day.

A deep ex­amination of the theoretical and political foundations of money that rescues the money discus­sion from economists."—Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Open Magazine Thus, tweets signal two kinds of information that affect the Mexican peso: future US policy and the probability that those policies will be implemented, which are mediated by the perceived likelihood of Trump winning the election. On the latter point, the largest move in the peso came after Trump won the election—during which time no additional policy information was released, yet when new information about the probability of Trump being elected changed (from a relatively low probability to 100 percent, in a “surprise” outcome). Currency Politics is an ambitious book on an important topic. Frieden is one of the best political economists and one of the best scholars writing on this subject."—Sebastian Edwards, University of California, Los Angeles and author of Toxic Aid

Eich’s extraordinary book provides an essential guide to thinking about the politics of money."— Adam Tooze A second explanation is that financial markets began to discount Trump's tweets as no longer providing useful information. As Ioan Grillo notes in an interview with Mexican residents, “while Mr. Trump's language angers [Mexicans], his first year in power did not affect them as much as they feared.” 30 Actual trade restrictions against Mexico proved to less significant than feared. A third potential explanation is that the period after the inauguration simply represented a regression to the mean. 31 In this case, markets returned to the long-term valuation for the dollar-peso exchange rate after the inauguration. Since the force on the peso was overwhelmingly negative before the inauguration, a return to the mean would represent a slightly positive outcome, as observed in the models.

Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy. Jeffry A. Frieden. Princeton University Press. 2016. Alexander Slaski, Ph.D., is a postdoctoral fellow at Leiden University. His research focuses on the political economy of foreign direct investment, investment incentives, and currency flows in the developing world, particularly Latin America. His current book project examines how multinational firms shape regulatory policy in developing economies. His work has been published or is forthcoming in outlets including The Review of International Organizations, The Review of International Political Economy, and International Studies Quarterly. Notes As the campaign continued and the information uncertainty about potential policy toward Mexico diminished, one would expect that the effect of tweets on the peso would diminish. However, as Benton et al. note, even when tweets did not contain any new information (indeed, they often contained similar or even identical language to older tweets), they shifted prices in financial markets ( Benton and Philips 2020). That is, even though tweets should no longer have an effect if they did not contain new information, the effect of tweets on the peso continued. The explanation, again drawing on Benton et al., is that the frequency of tweets signaled a commitment to implementing those policies. Indeed, the size of that effect depends on both the frequency of his tweets against Mexico—a proxy for his willingness to target Mexico with harmful economic policies—and the severity of his rhetoric, including whether he mentions new specific proposals that would harm the Mexican economy. Thus, a repeated tweet signals a higher probability that the proposal is likely to be implemented and is not simply noise or “cheap talk.”Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry’s characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. An intellectual history of money that theoretically grounds the works of others working on democratizing money. The Currency of Politics is a great addition to the philosophy of money."—Valerie Schreur, Oeconomia The chapters on currency policy in nineteenth-century USA are particularly illustrative: large-scale infrastructure investment acted as a catalyst for economic growth and geographical expansion across the new continent, leading to the emergence of two competing political blocs in the agricultural hinterland and urban centres of industry and finance. Railroad magnates funded new railways using foreign-denominated debt and had strong interest in moving away from gold to a floating exchange rate. Farmers and mining firms shared this interest and voted for lower price levels along with a floating exchange rate to guarantee competitiveness in export markets. Manufacturers went against expected behaviour for two reasons: import tariffs were relatively high, particularly after the Civil War, and the US was geographically distant from potential competitors. With high transport costs protecting firms from competition with European counterparts, they could easily pass-through the costs of currency fluctuations to consumers. The Latin American analysis conversely brings to light a tendency for currencies to appreciate in the lead-up to an election, boosting the purchasing power of consumers to support re-election for the incumbent government, but in some cases creating unsustainable price levels and precipitating a currency crisis. Tweets after Trump announces his presidential run, but before being selected as the nominee (47 tweets). H3: An increased probability of Trump being elected will lead to a decrease in the value of the peso. Empirical Approach

A pathbreaking new intellectual history of monetary policy. In examining how key thinkers approached the economic crises of their respective times, Eich offers a map for navigating the politics of money today."—Daniel Steinmetz-Jenkins, The Nation Even though written clearly, this book is a challenging read; it surprises readers with sudden enlightenment on profound concepts like the impossible trinity, substitution and income effects of currency, the Mundell-Fleming-Dornush Framework, the Dornush overshooting model, and the optimum currency area theory, among others. As the author relates these concepts to historical events, the reader is compelled to continue reading the book until its conclusion."—Shishir Shakya, Review of Regional Studies The Currency of Politics breaks the frame we use to understand money. More than an instrument or an institution, currency becomes a nerve center of political theory. Deeply in dialogue with the past, Stefan Eich compels us forward to conceptualize money as a medium for democratic agency—or its loss. A tour de force.”—Christine Desan, author of Making Money: Coin, Currency, and the Coming of CapitalismThe moment when you start to wonder what money is feels like pitching through a trapdoor into the void. This book is a marvelous aid to stabilizing that awful sense of cognitive vertigo. By examining several periods in the history of money, and showing how it has been used in each period to constitute power and the state, Eich brings us to the present with a much clearer sense of where we are, how we got here, and how we might seize money itself and use it as a creative political force for good.”—Kim Stanley Robinson, author of Ministry for the Future Eich’s contribution demarcates a new space for political thought on money, and brings together key theorists on the structuration of money both to show that political thought often has a direct effect on the type of monetary system that is maintained, and to show that democratic agency vis-a-vis money is often wilfully ignored."—Dominic Burbidge, Politics and Poetics The book is readable for both economists and political scientists. I recommend Currency Politics to both sets of scholars. Economists will learn about the political aspects of exchange-regime choice and political scientists about the economic aspects. ---Lawrence H. Officer, EH.Net In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, critical attention has shifted from the economy to the most fundamental feature of all market economies—money. Yet despite the centrality of political struggles over money, it remains difficult to articulate its democratic possibilities and limits. The Currency of Politicstakes readers from ancient Greece to today to provide an intellectual history of money, drawing on the insights of key political philosophers to show how money is not just a medium of exchange but also a central institution of political rule.



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