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The best predictive analytic method does not rely on linear extrapolation. That always produces deficient results except on rare occasions when it’s right by chance. This does not mean the past has no lessons for the future. The history of inflation has valuable lessons for forecasting inflationary trends, yet they don’t derive from simple projections of trends. They derive from the ability to identify causal factors, mapping those factors into a network of nodes, populating each node with data and natural language inputs, estimating the direction and strength of nodal outputs, and aggregating those outputs into a single inflation forecast. In plain English, history matters because you can derive causes, not because it’s ever the same twice. People, even policymakers, learn. Behavior is adaptive. When society passes through an adverse phase such as the late 1970s inflation, officials resolve not to let it happen again. That doesn’t mean inflation won’t happen again. It doesn’t mean officials won’t make new mistakes; they usually do. It does mean that certain response functions are highly predictable both as to policy and timing. It’s the Ph.D. equivalent of closing the barn door. This makes it easy to predict that the barn door will be closed. That gives you a head start on what comes next."
Out by James Rickards | Goodreads Sold Out by James Rickards | Goodreads
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Out! by James Rickards - Penguin Books Australia Sold Out! by James Rickards - Penguin Books Australia
Excellent book about the breakdown of the supply chain, especially in the face of macroeconomic, geopolitical, energy, financial and political crisis.But I am amazed at the display of American moral superiority and the constant China bashing in the book. He accused China of genocide without evidence when the hands of US and its allies were full of blood. The worst thing about this invaluable collection of thoughts is that there are truths, but they are buried under a mountain of assumptions, incorrect interpretations, irrelevant numbers, and sometimes even "alternative facts". This men's mind is focused only on the economy, and there is NOTHING more important. Pandemics? Bad for the economy. Wars? Idiots, it's terrible for the economy!! Espionage? It's bad for the economy!! Women not having children? It's very, very bad, but it's worse for the future economy. Climate change? Joking, this one doesn't matter so much, but people who are climate 'alarmists' are bad for the economy!! Invasion: How America Still Welcomes Terrorists, Criminals, and Other Foreign Menaces to Our Shores Full Book Name: Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy
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