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While there have been improvements in climate models to realistically represent the evolution of Arctic climate 30, 31 and sea ice 32 under global warming, most models in the latest generation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) still fail to simulate plausible sensitivity of Arctic sea-ice loss to the rise of global temperatures 33. In earlier studies, the discrepancy between observed and simulated sea ice trends have been attributed to a lower sensitivity of modelled Arctic sea ice trends to global warming 34 or anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 35. However, Swart et al. 36 argued that the observed and simulated September Arctic sea-ice trends over 1979–2013 are not inconsistent when accounting properly for the internal climate variability. According to Ding et al. 37, even up to 50% of the recent multi-decadal decline in Arctic sea ice may be due to internal variability. Bailey, A., Singh, H. K. & Nusbaumer, J. Evaluating a moist isentropic framework for poleward moisture transport: implications for water isotopes over Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 7819–7827 (2019). Main articles: Climate of the Arctic and Global warming in the Arctic A snowy landscape of Inari located in Lapland ( Finland)

McGhee, Robert (2005). The last imaginary place: a human history of the Arctic world (Digitized 7 October 2008ed.). Oxford University Press. p.55. ISBN 978-0-19-518368-9. Archived from the original on 30 June 2023 . Retrieved 24 August 2020. The Arctic includes copious natural resources (oil, gas, minerals, fresh water, fish and, if the subarctic is included, forest) to which modern technology and the economic opening up of Russia have given significant new opportunities. The interest of the tourism industry is also on the increase. Sigmond, M. & Fyfe, J. C. The Antarctic sea ice response to the ozone hole in climate models. J. Clim. 27, 1336–1342 (2014). Update 03/25/2021: We have clarified the results of the mismatch between the L/R driver. While we experienced a difference in frequency response between both drivers, it could be due to a quality issue unique to our model. We compare the simulated AA with observations using two approaches. In the first approach, we extract all possible AA 43 ratios for the 43-year periods starting from 1970 and ending by 2040 from all four climate model ensembles. Accordingly, there are 29 43-year periods in total, which are overlapping partly with each other (1970–2012, 1971–2013, ..., 1998–2040). The time window of 1970–2040 was chosen to avoid the nearly ice-free climate conditions later in the 21st century, the comparison of which with the currently-observed values would be meaningless. The starting year 1970 reflects approximately the time when the recent period of sustained global warming has started 79. All possible 43-year time windows were considered because the internal climate variability in the models is not expected to be in phase with the real climate system. Using all realizations and the 29 different 43-year periods gives us an opportunity to assess in total 11020 simulated AA 43 ratios (29 periods x 380 realizations), with a sample of 1044 in CMIP5, 5626 in CMIP6, 2900 in MPI-GE, and 1450 in CanESM5. The probabilities are calculated as the number of simulated AA 43 equal to or greater than the observed AA 43, divided by the total number of simulated AA 43 ratios. For the CMIP6 ensemble, the probability has been calculated first for each model separately, then taking the average across the models. This gives a weight of 1 for each model.Schmithüsen, H., Notholt, J., König-Langlo, G., Lemke, P. & Jung, T. How increasing CO 2 leads to an increased negative greenhouse effect in Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 10–422 (2015). Bitz, C. & Polvani, L. M. Antarctic climate response to stratospheric ozone depletion in a fine resolution ocean climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L20705 (2012). The presence (or absence) of the polar cell determines how meridional temperature advection responds to CO 2-doubling over the high Southern latitudes. When Antarctic orography is at present-day height, the temperature advection response is northward in the lower troposphere (Fig. 7a, c, colors), as warm temperature anomalies are advected away from the Antarctic continent by the lower branch of the polar cell. When Antarctic orography is flattened, on the other hand, the meridional temperature advection response is towards the continent (i.e., southward; Fig. 7b, d, colors) in the lower troposphere, as warmer boundary layer air from areas where sea ice has retreated is more readily advected poleward when the polar cell is absent. Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). "Inaugural Article: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (6): 1786–93. Bibcode: 2008PNAS..105.1786L. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748. Main article: Global warming in the Arctic Arctic sea ice coverage as of 2007 compared to 2005 and compared to 1979–2000 average

Our results demonstrate that climate models as a group tend to underestimate the observed Arctic amplification in the 1979–2021 time period, i.e. since the beginning of the recent period of global warming. This is also true for the latest CMIP6 models despite the fact that some of these models better reproduce the absolute warming rate in the Arctic. However, those models that show plausible Arctic warming trend typically have too much global warming as well when compared to observations. In contrast, those models that simulate global warming close to that observed, generally have too weak Arctic warming (Fig. S 9). Thus, our results show that most climate models are unable to simulate a fast-warming Arctic simultaneously with weaker global warming, as found earlier for the relationship of Arctic sea ice decline and global atmospheric warming 34. Most strikingly the underestimation was true for the CMIP5 and MPI-GE ensembles, which altogether included only three realizations simulating as high AA as observed in 1979–2021. These results, i.e., lower AA in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models compared to the observations, are consistent with earlier studies 38, 40, 41. Nevertheless, we also found that the discrepancy in AA between climate models and observations is smaller when calculated over longer periods, such as 1950–2021 (Fig. 4). Society, National Geographic (6 October 2016). "Arctic". National Geographic Society. Archived from the original on 3 June 2020 . Retrieved 11 June 2020.Seviour, W. et al. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature response to ozone depletion: a multimodel comparison. J. Clim. 32, 5107–5121 (2019). SteelSeries opted for a retractable microphone with its ClearCast noise cancelling branding, a bidirectional design and Discord certification. As a result of both the dry and moist transport processes described above, Antarctic continent surface temperatures warm more with CO 2-doubling when Antarctic orography is flattened (recall Figs. 2 and 3). Neale, R. B. et al. The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J. Clim. 26, 5150–5168 (2013).